Japan is splitting the luxury world in two
As the world's big luxury houses reported, their Japan numbers split cleanly in two: hard-luxury and jewellery boomed while more tourist-dependent names softened — the same China-inbound divide reshaping Japan's department stores.
Japan's luxury customers didn't change this season — but which maisons they favoured did. As the world's big luxury houses reported through July, their Japan numbers split cleanly in two. Cartier's owner Richemont saw Japan sales jump 36% at constant currency; Hermès grew 11% there and Swatch 20%. At the other end, Coach's Japan sales fell 10%, Burberry's slipped 6%, and Ferragamo's declined too. Same country, same quarter — opposite results.
Two Japans, one dividing line
The maisons booming in Japan share a customer: the affluent local and the high-spending tourist who comes for the product, not the discount. Hermès credited 'loyal local customers' and tourist traffic that accelerated through the spring; Richemont pointed to strong local demand and returning visitors, led by its jewellery houses. These are the houses — jewellery, watches, ultra-luxury leather — whose Japan floors rest on clienteling and top-tier demand, and they had a spectacular quarter.
The laggards share a different exposure. Coach, Burberry and Ferragamo lean more on the accessible-luxury shopper and on tour-group traffic — much of it, historically, from China. As Chinese visitor numbers to Japan thinned from late 2025, that flow softened: Ferragamo said plainly that its Japan decline reflected 'the significant reduction in tourist flows from China,' and Burberry blamed the same. Prada sat in between — its Japan retail sales edged up 1% at constant currency, with local demand 'stable,' even as a weak yen cut the figure in euros.
% change year on year (constant currency where reported)
The same split we've been tracking
This is not a new story — it is the luxury-maison version of one Floortok has followed all season. It is the same divide that separated Takashimaya, whose spring quarter boomed on returning inbound shoppers, from Hankyu Hanshin, whose department stores absorbed a near-20% drop in inbound sales. It is the visitor-mix shift behind Taiwan overtaking China as Japan's top-spending nationality, as Chinese spending halved. The floors and the maisons winning in Japan are those built around local affluence and a broader, higher-spending tourist base; those still indexed to the old Chinese tour-group flow are feeling its retreat.
One caveat colours the European numbers: a strong euro dragged the majors' reported figures well below their underlying growth this half, so LVMH's and Kering's headline dips understate how their brands actually traded. But on Japan specifically the dividing line is clear enough — and it is less about the yen than about who each maison is built to serve. As the last of the half-year results land, the question for any house planning its Japan flagships is simple: which Japan are you selling to?