Nomura Real Estate's first-quarter profit falls 31% on fewer condo handovers, but full-year guidance and dividend growth hold

Nomura Real Estate Holdings reported operating profit of ¥25.5 billion for the three months to June 2026, down just over 30% from ¥36.8 billion a year earlier, as the Tokyo-based developer delivered fewer condominium units to buyers than in the same quarter last year, according to results the company released on 30 July.

Operating revenue fell 13.7% to ¥191.0 billion from ¥221.4 billion, Nomura said. Business profit — the company's preferred earnings measure, which adds back items such as equity-method gains — was down 30% to ¥27.1 billion from ¥38.6 billion, and profit attributable to owners of the parent fell 36% to ¥14.7 billion from ¥23.1 billion.

The drag was concentrated in the two segments most exposed to project-by-project timing. Residential Development revenue fell to ¥101.1 billion from ¥118.5 billion, which Nomura attributed to fewer housing units sold and a comparison against land sales booked in the same period a year earlier, while Commercial Real Estate revenue dropped to ¥48.6 billion from ¥62.2 billion on fewer property sales. In Japan's condominium business, revenue is recognised only once a building is complete and keys change hands, so a heavy delivery quarter one year and a light one the next can swing reported profit by billions of yen with no change in underlying demand.

Not every line fell. Property Brokerage & CRE revenue rose to ¥14.9 billion from ¥14.6 billion, which Nomura said reflected higher transaction values and more deals in its retail and middle-market brokerage business, and Property & Facility Management grew to ¥27.3 billion from ¥26.2 billion on more managed properties and construction work. Those are the group's steadier, fee-based lines, and their growth this quarter is a reminder that Nomura's income is not as uniformly lumpy as its condo calendar alone would suggest.

Despite the quarterly miss, Nomura left its full-year forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027 unchanged from the guidance it issued on 24 April: operating revenue of ¥1.08 trillion, up 14.6% on the year, and business profit of ¥150.0 billion, up 1.8% — both of which it said would be record highs. The company also confirmed an annual dividend of ¥44 per share, up ¥4 and enough to mark a fifteenth consecutive year of dividend increases, with a payout ratio of 43.7%.

The maths implies most of this year's condo handovers, and the profit that comes with them, are weighted toward the second half: a first quarter that covers only 18% of the full-year revenue forecast and 17% of the profit forecast is consistent with that pattern, not a sign guidance is already out of reach. For a developer whose business profit has climbed every year since FY2023, one soft quarter against an unchanged full-year target is the kind of dip a multi-year chart absorbs rather than interrupts.