ANA's international flying surges on inbound demand, but fuel and the yen erase the gain in profit

ANA Holdings booked group revenue of ¥1.399 trillion for the six months to September 2026, up 17.5% from a year earlier, according to the earnings flash (kessan tanshin, 決算短信) it filed with the Tokyo Stock Exchange on 29 October. Operating profit fell 9.7% to ¥88.2 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders dropped 11.8% to ¥67.1 billion, with the airline group saying fuel costs rose faster than its sales did.

The split between international and domestic flying explains most of the revenue line. International passenger revenue under the ANA brand rose 21.2% to ¥492.0 billion, as what the company called "booming inbound demand" filled seats on routes it added through the summer, from an extra Narita–Bangkok service in April to a Narita–Singapore increase in September. Passenger numbers on those international routes rose 8.7%, well short of the 21.2% revenue gain, implying fares climbed too. Domestic passenger revenue, by contrast, inched up just 1.0% to ¥370.3 billion, with passenger numbers essentially flat at 22.57 million, as a May fare overhaul and leisure-fare sales offset disruption from typhoons and the rerouting of flights after July's Kumamoto earthquake.

Fuel and the yen explain the squeeze

ANA's own breakdown shows why the revenue gain didn't reach the bottom line: the airline division's operating profit fell 15.8% even as its revenue rose 19.2%, squeezed by higher fuel costs. Revising its full-year forecast, ANA raised expected group revenue by ¥100 billion to ¥2.87 trillion and net profit by 3.1% to ¥99 billion — but left its operating-profit guidance unchanged at ¥150 billion. The reason is in the assumptions it published alongside the revision: it now plans around a dollar worth ¥160, up from ¥155 at the previous forecast, Dubai crude at $90 a barrel, up from $75, and Singapore kerosene up from $90 to $150. floortok's Market Data room shows the yen weakened 5.8% against the dollar over the same 12 months, to ¥156.42 in September, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve — a meaningful share of the cost pressure ANA describes is the exchange rate, not a failure to sell seats.

The inbound crowd ANA is flying is also changing shape under its feet. Visitor arrivals from China fell 44.5% year on year in September, even as arrivals from South Korea rose 25.6% and from Taiwan 13%, according to JNTO's provisional figures — a reminder that "booming inbound demand", as ANA describes it, is no longer evenly spread across the markets it serves.

A trading arm buys into Japan's retail floor

Retail is a smaller line in ANA's results but a telling one. Revenue at its trading business rose 3.3% to ¥75.3 billion, as airport retail formats — the ANA DUTY FREE SHOP counters and the ANA FESTA airport convenience stores — benefited from the rebound in passenger traffic, the company said. Segment operating profit fell 18.9%, though, partly because last year's results had been lifted by brisk trade at its souvenir wholesaler, FUJISEY, during the Osaka-Kansai Expo, a boost that has since faded, and partly on higher staffing costs.

Within that business, ANA's trading subsidiary, ANA Trading (全日空商事), said in September it had decided to take full ownership of AKOMEYA TOKYO, the Japanese food-and-lifestyle retailer, aiming to combine the airport sales network and retail know-how ANA has built with AKOMEYA's own brand and merchandising strength to grow the group's retail business further. ANA did not disclose the price.

The two moves sit awkwardly together: ANA's airport shops are riding a travel recovery that is itself uneven by nationality, while its newest retail acquisition bets on a brand whose strength lies off-airport, in neighbourhood and department-store retail. How the two combine, and whether the fuel and currency pressure already built into ANA's revised full-year guidance eases, are the things to watch into the second half.